Dancing on the tunes of global markets, Indian market opened
on a firm note and hit fresh record highs. The S&P BSE Sensex rallied over
200 points to hit a fresh record high of 32,031.93 while Nifty50 inched towards
9,900 as it hit a fresh record high of 9,881.25.
US markets at record highs, rate cut hopes back home and
relatively stable June quarter earnings led to a breakout above key resistance
levels on D-Street.
The S&P BSE Sensex has already over 5000 points or 20
percent so far in the year 2017 and another 20 percent rally looks unlikely in
the second half of the year. But, there will be a lot of stock specific action.
The party has moved to the broader market as well. The
S&P BSE Mid-cap and small-cap hit fresh record highs. The S&P BSE
Mid-cap index touched its all-time high of 15206.41 level while BSE Small-cap
index also touched its life-time high of 16005.83 level.
“Market performance in the second half will depend more on
the smoothness of GST implementations locally for July and more importantly on
ECB & US Fed actions or lack thereof in September,” Rishi Kohli, MD &
CIO, Monsoon Capital told GRS Solution.
“Currently markets world over are in a bullish phase where
all bad news are being overlooked and good news are bought into. It is
difficult to see any particular trigger which will reverse that mood of the
markets,” he said.
The Nifty too has been in an uptrend amid some consolidation
in the month of June. But, Bulls managed to take over D-Street in the month if
July. The index has maintained a higher low formation for eighth consecutive
sessions reflecting persistent demand at elevated levels.
The resolute breakout from one-month consolidation range
above 9,710 has opened the room for an extension of current up move towards
9,970 regions over the short term, suggest experts.
Structurally, the index has concluded a healthy corrective
phase over the last month within the larger degree uptrend. “While the Nifty
formed a higher base around key support of 9500-9450 zone, individual stocks
witnessed sharper price wise correction to the tune of over 20 percent,”
Dharmesh Shah – Head Technical, AVP at ICICI Direct.com Research told Freetrial.
“We believe this is a healthy sign as sector/stock specific
profit booking has panned out while the index has maintained its higher top
higher bottom sequence,” he said. The immediate support base for the index is
now placed at 9,600 region.
The share price remains in a medium term uptrend
consistently forming rising peaks and troughs on the weekly scale since
bottoming out in early 2016. Within this uptrend, the stock has undergone
periodic phases of consolidation that have provided fresh entry opportunities.
In the present scenario, we believe the stock has concluded
a healthy corrective phase over the last two months and provides fresh entry
opportunity to ride the next up move within the prevailing uptrend.
The stock has witnessed a strong rebound after taking
support at the major value area of Rs 270 which is the confluence of lower band
of the rising channel containing the entire price action since November 2016
and the long term rising 52-week moving average that has acted as strong
support in the entire up move since 2016.
We believe the stock has concluded a healthy corrective
phase and is set to embark upon its next major up move towards Rs325 over the
medium term as it is the upper band of the rising channel in place since
November 2016 which also coincides with the 123.6% retracement of the previous
decline from Rs315 to Rs270.
The share price of Mahanagar Gas is in a strong uptrend
forming a higher peak and higher trough in all time frame. After hitting a life
high of |1055 in April 2017, the stock has entered into a secondary
consolidation phase to work off the overbought conditions developed after the
strong up move in March-April 2017.
The entire consolidation over last three months has occurred
above the rising 50-days moving average that has acted as strong support for
the share price over the last two years. Price wise the stock has retraced its
preceding two months up move (844 to 1055) by 61.8% while time wise it has
consumed almost three months in the current consolidation.
Limited price wise correction and extended time-wise
consolidation highlights the overall robust price structure and augurs well for
the stock going forward.
We believe the secondary consolidation phase is approaching
maturity and the stock provides a good entry opportunity with favorable
risk/reward to ride the next up move within the larger degree uptrend.
The share price of TBZ embarked upon a sustainable uptrend
after bottoming out in the first quarter of CY16. Thereafter, the stock has
maintained a rising trajectory by moving in a higher top, higher bottom
formation signalling a steady uptrend.
The sideways consolidation over last two months has taken
the pictorial shape of a bullish Pennant formation which is a bullish
continuation pattern comprising narrow consolidation in a contracting range as
bulls take a breather after a strong advance to gather steam before continuance
of the up move.
We believe the stock is well placed to continue its upward
trend over the coming months and, therefore, offers good entry opportunity with
the favourable risk-reward setup. We expect the stock to head towards Rs112
regions over the medium term as it is the measuring implication of the
two-month consolidation range
