The larger trend is down and in favor of bears but there seems to be a critical support on the long-term charts around 10,239 levelswhere bulls may put up a strong fight.
Once a breach of 10,239 on the weekly closing basis happens we will be comfortable to project a downside target somewhere between 9,900 – 9,700 where Nifty should bottom out, Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research & Trading Advisory, Chartviewindia.in, said in an interview with Moneycontrol’s Kshitij Anand.
We saw a roller coaster ride for Indian markets this week. The index which reclaims 200-DMA came under selling pressure after reclaiming 10700.
Yes, as you rightly said, that Nifty50 faltered around its 200-day moving average (DMA) after entering into the bearish gap zone of 10,754-10,843 levels registered on 4th of October.
At this juncture what we need to understand is about the direction of larger trends which appears to have decisively tilted in favour of bears at least from August 2018 from the absolute highs of 11,760 levels (record high).
In fact, the market started slipping slowly into bear clutches from the beginning of January 2018 itself as suggested by the severity of the correction and weak advance-decline ratios on subsequent rallies.
When the larger trends are down the subsequent rallies are considered as counter-trend rallies (as they go against the main trend) and are bound to perish after retracing some of the lost ground before resuming the downtrend with an interim top.
Similarly, Nifty50 appears to have completed its counter-trend move around 10,775. In that case, eventually, all the gains which we have registered from the lows of 10,000 shall be wiped out.
It means we may also see Nifty trading sub-10,000 levels going forward and this projection is backed by a strong technical evidence based on historical price behavior with sell signals on long-term charts.
Contrary to our expectations, if Nifty50 regains strength and closes above 10,775 then we may see some more strength in the pullback rally which may get extended towards 11,069 levels.
