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Saturday, 16 November 2019

Small-caps fell the most in a volatile week; but over 30 stocks buck the trend

Indian market remained volatile throughout the week largely weighed down by muted results from India Inc. as well as weak economic data on inflation and IIP.





The Indian markets remained volatile and closed flat in a truncated week. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.08 percent while the Nifty fell 0.11 percent for the week ended November 15.


The Indian markets remained volatile throughout the week largely weighed down by muted results from India Inc. as well as weak economic data on inflation and IIP. Moody’s downgrade of the rating outlook to 'negative' from 'stable' also strengthens the bearish outlook.

The broader market witnessed a mixed trend where the S&P BSE mid-cap index was up by 0.28 percent while the S&P BSE small-cap index fell 1.1 percent in the past four trading days.

But, as many as 33 stocks in the small-cap space bucked the trend. These include HG Infra, Steel Exchange, Rushil D├ęcor, Manpasand Beverages, Punj Lloyd, and Dixon Technologies among others.

As many as 72 stocks in the small-cap index fell 10-20 percent. These include names like Suzlon Energy, Jain Irrigations, OM Metals, Prime Focus, KSK Energy, Gala Global, and TVS Electronics among others.

"We are again seeing the lull phase on the broader front after a marginal bounce. And, it shows indecisiveness among the participants amid weak local cues. They’re avoiding high beta counters and sticking mostly with the index majors.

"However, we’re seeing selective recovery and expect this trend to continue, at least in the near future. Participants should maintain extra caution while making fresh bets and suggest to strictly avoiding penny stocks,".

What to watch out for:

With earnings season out of the way, the focus will now shift to global cues and GDP data which will be out in the last week of November.

On the global front, signs of progress in the US-China trade deal have improved overall sentiment across global markets. However, domestic macros are not providing confidence to investors.

"In recent times we are seeing some concrete steps from the government and RBI to push growth which will soothe investors’ nerves. Going ahead, RBI is likely to give more focus on growth rather than rising inflation in the near term which may influence them for few more rate cuts and induce greater transmission,".

"Given this scenario, we may see limited downside for Nifty despite premium valuation. The likely trading range for the market will be 11,600-12,000,".

12,000 on Nifty in November?

The Nifty witnessed selling pressure near 12,000 levels and witnessed profit-taking around these levels. Technical experts say that there is a possibility that the index could make an attempt towards 12,000 in November series although consolidation cannot be ruled out.

"Indications are in the favour of further consolidation and we expect Nifty to hover within 11,700-12,100 range. Having said that, we feel it’s a healthy pause after the recent surge and the overall trend would remain positive".



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